Acciones 2020. Porsche AG

Buenos días, ya es el momento de estudiar las acciones ideales para la cartera del 2020, Hacemos una análisis de Porsche AG.

El sector automovilístico está en dificultad desde hace algunos años, ya han terminado los tiempos en que había que vender coches a todo el mundo. Hoy en el mundo occidental todos tienen coche y el negocio está limitado a los cambios de vehículo.

Ahora estamos en la época de la transición energética, se van abandonando el diésel y la gasolina y crecen los vehículos a gas y sobre todo los eléctricos. Tomarán muchas ventajas las compañías que sabrán adaptarse antes a las nuevas exigencias.

En este sentido Porsche ha dado un gran paso en estos días con el lanzamiento del nuevo Taycan, un coche deportivo eléctrico de 750 CV de potencia que pasa de 0 a 100 km/h en 2,8 segundos.

Será industrializado en la nueva fábrica de Zuffenhausen inaugurada el día 9 de este mes, una factoría super moderna con objetivo de sostener la producción sin emisiones de CO2.

Al mismo tiempo acaba de lanzar dos nuevos modelos a tracción integral del ya exitoso Porsche 911 Carrera.

Análisis

Dr. Ing. h.c.F. Porsche AG es un fabricante de automóviles alemán especializado en coches deportivos, SUV y berlina, es el mayor productor de vehículos deportivos del mundo, pertenece al Grupo Volkswagen.

Reales en M € Estimaciones en M €
Periodo Fiscal Diciembre 2016 2017 2018 2019 (e) 2020 (e) 2021 (e)
Ventas 1,00 34,0 103 118 122 158
EBITDA -47,0 -43,0 -41,0 14,0 -41,7
Resultado operativo (EBIT) 1 402 3 361 3 500 4 321 4 603 4 975
Beneficio antes de impuestos (EBT) 1 382 3 352 3 497 4 172 4 485 4 971
Lngresos netos 1 374 3 330 3 473 4 086 4 352 4 865
PER 11,5x 6,41x 4,55x 4,55x 4,27x 3,82x
EPS (€) 4,49 10,9 11,3 13,3 14,2 15,9
Dividendo por acción (€) 1,01 1,76 2,21 3,07 3,38 4,39
rendimiento 1,95% 2,52% 4,28% 5,05% 5,57% 7,23%
Precio de referencia (€) 51,740 69,780 51,640 60,700 60,700 60,700
Fecha de anuncio 21/03/2017
12:44 pm
20/03/2018
09:15 am
19/03/2019
07:02 pm

Banner 234x60

Valuación

2019e 2020e
PER 4,55x 4,27x
Capitalización / Ingresos 158x 153x
EV / Ingresos 154x 149x
EV / EBITDA 1 292x -434x
Rendimiento (DPS / Precio) 5,05% 5,57%
Precio a reservar (Precio / BVPS) 0,48x 0,45x

Rentabilidad

2019e 2020e
Margen operativo (EBIT / Ventas) 3 676% 3 781%
Apalancamiento operativo (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales) 1,66x 1,83x
Margen neto (beneficio neto / ingresos) 3 476% 3 575%
ROA (beneficio neto / activo) 13,3% 13,2%
ROE (beneficio neto / renta variable) 12,2% 12,1%
Tasa de dividendos 23,0% 23,8%

Análisis de balance

2019e 2020e
CAPEX / Ventas   6,81% 14,0%
Flujo de caja / ventas 629% 765%
Intensidad de capital (activos / ventas) 262x 272x

Está en rango lateral ligeramente alcista desde hace casi 4 años, en un triángulo que tiene ahora apoyo sobre los 54€ y resistencia alrededor de los 71€.

 

 A corto plazo está cerca de una resistencia entre los 63€ y los 63,50€, si la rompe es el momento de comprar. Si la  resistencia aguanta puede retroceder otra vez cerca de los 54€, que sería un punto de compra perfecto.



En las próximas semanas analizaremos más empresas para la cartera de acciones 2020. Por cualquier duda, opinión o sugerencia os invito a comentar el artículo.

Gracias y hasta mañana.

Por favor, si has encontrado el artículo interesante pon me gusta y compártelo, muchas gracias.
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