Acciones 2020. Análisis de ENCE

Fábrica Ence

Buenos días, seguimos estudiando empresas para formar nuestra cartera 2020 y hoy presentamos un análisis de Ence Energía y Celulosa S.A.

Es una empresa española que se dedica al cultivo y a la transformación de madera para uso industrial. Es el mayor propietario de bosques maderables de eucalipto en Europa, el primer productor europeo y segundo al mundo de celulosa de eucalipto con sus fábricas de Pontevedra y Navia.

También es la primera empresa española en producción de energía renovable por biomasa agroforestal con sus 7 plantas en Huelva, Mérida, Jaén, Lucena, Ciudad Real y Puertollano. Tiene una planta de energía solar térmica en Termollano y está construyendo dos plantas más.

Cumple con mucho margen los parámetros ambientales, es un modelo de sostenibilidad y ha recibido premios internacionales por su compromiso ecológico. Es interesante también por nuestra estrategia b&h.

Está ahora al centro de un enredo político-judicial por las concesiones territoriales de la fábrica de Pontevedra, con el riesgo de cerrarla en 2033. El problema de los países del sur de Europa es que se dan muchos incentivos y ayudas a las empresas que trabajan mal, no son rentables y tienen pérdidas. Sin embargo se ponen muchas trabas a las compañías que cumplen y son rentables. Obviamente en caso de cierre de la fábrica de Pontevedra el traslado sería a otro país y en Galicia se perderían muchos puestos de trabajo. Sería una gran irresponsabilidad por parte del gobierno.

En el último año Ence ha visto reducir sensiblemente sus ingresos a causa de la caída del precio de la celulosa, pero la empresa sigue muy viable y tiene óptimas perspectivas de cara al futuro. Sí por un lado va cayendo el negocio de la papelería reemplazado por la «nube», tiene mucho futuro el papel absorbente (papel higiénico, pañuelos, servilletas, pañales, compresas…). Sobretodo puede haber mucho negocio en los países en vía de desarrollo, que cuando entran en la fase de industrialización incrementan notablemente estos usos.

La energía renovable con biomasa es la energía limpia más rentable, no depende de factores incontrolables como viento o agua y se combina muy bien con el negocio de la celulosa.

 

Análisis de Ence Energía y Celulosa S.A.

2020 * 2019 * 2018 2017 2016
PER 7,89 14,83 7,13 10,02 23,96
PRECIO / CASH FLOW 4,23 6,16 4,20 5,48 10,13
PRECIO / VALOR CONTABLE 1,24 1,36 1,33 1,42 1,66
ROE 15,73 9,19 18,71 14,19 6,94
DIVIDENDO NETO POR ACCION 0,23 0,13 0,26 0,19 0,10
RENTABILIDAD POR DIVIDENDO 4,47 5,31 3,26 5,85
BENEFICIO NETO (MILLONES) 106,50 58,90 129,05 91,80 38,71
EBITDA (MILLONES) 268,00 199,18 291,00 216,00 125,57
BPA 0,47 0,25 0,52 0,37 0,15

* Datos estimados.

A Largo plazo lleva casi un año en tendencia bajista, a medio plazo lleva casi 2 meses en el rango lateral ligeramente alcista.

Está luchando contra la fuerte resistencia de la línea de tendencia bajista a largo plazo, pero el alto volumen del último semestre que ha desminuido en los últimos días podría indicar que ha habido una buena acumulación. También las divergencias alcistas en MACD y RSI en gráfico diario y semanal son buenas señales, mientras que el gráfico mensual presenta divergencias bajistas.

Serán muy importantes los próximos días, superar la resistencia cerca de los 3,70€ se puede considerar una señal de compra, perder el apoyo cerca de los 3,50€ puede indicar una bajada al infierno. El panorama se debería delinear muy pronto.

300x250

Hoy termina la semana y es día de vencimiento principal de derivados, puede haber mucho volumen.

Espero que os haya gustado el artículo, por cualquier duda, opinión, consejo o sugerencia os invito a comentar. Os deseo un weekend feliz, hasta pronto.

Por favor, si has encontrado el artículo interesante pon me gusta y compártelo, muchas gracias.
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